How People Vote

Politics is character.

Kamala Harris continues to unroll her campaign, so far, without a hitch. She does so by providing a warm, and welcoming presence rather than a set of issues to run on. She extends Biden’s efficient and humane program of greater entitlements and a new  Democratic Congress would restore both voting rights and abortion rights, both of which Biden supports. But what she mainly sells is her presence and so she takes credit for taking charge and propelling her campaign to a growing lead over Trump, all due credit to be mentioned for the experienced people she put in charge of the campaign. I am amazed at her political touch and so it is understandable that policies aren’t central. They aren’t necessary, however much it may be that pro abortion voters might be the difference in the November election. 

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What a Political Convention is Not

I wish national political conventions were more analytic.

The first national political conventions largely covered by television was in 1952 and both the Republican and Democratic eventual nominees for their parties were contested. For the Republicans, Robert Taft, often called “Mr. Republican”, was isolationist and anti-labor but was defeated by Dwight David Eisenhower, the famous general of World War II, who was an internationalist who would go on, as President, to in effect ratify the New Deal. I remember Everet Dirksen, the Senator from Illinois, standing on the rostrum and pointing his finger at Tom Dewey, who was the leader of the New York delegation, saying with contempt, Dewey, a strong supporter of Eisenhower, that Dewey “had led us down to defeat”. For their part, there were a number of contestants for the Democratic nomination in that year. There was support by Eleanor Roosevelt for Averil Harriman, the Governor of New York, who had been a major player in diplomatic negotiations for her late husband, and she was interviewed on television on Harriman’s behalf. But Harriman was somewhat stiff and probably nobody could have beaten Eisenhower.

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Freedom and Liberty

These two sentiments divide America. 

“Freedom” and “liberty” are two terms that are used interchangeably since the founding of the Republic, as in “Give me liberty or give me death!”, which might have been said as “Give me freedom or give me death!”, but these two terms should be distinguished so as to be clearer about the architecture of government. Freedom refers to ways in which people are not externally constrained by governments and so point to the process of unleashing people of their shackles. Roosevelt’s “Four Freedoms” refer to becoming  unconstrained by fear and want though it treats the other two as attributes of positive government,  which is the freedom of speech and to engage in religion, but those two had been under attack by contemporary repressive governments and so to be thought of as something to be achieved rather than as the founding fathers thought inherent in human nature. Liberty, on the other hand, refers to what the unconstrained person can do and so are the expressions of individuality rather than a coercive act to be lifted. So people can mean liberty to mean, as many frontiersmen did, to be  far away from their neighbors, or wear holstered pistols so as to create a great equalization, or try unpopular or uncouth thoughts, or to engage in dangerous sports, or to otherwise explore the possibilities of the individuality coming into favor in the late Eighteenth Century.

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The Biden Withdrawal

Three incumbent Presidents in my lifetime decided not to run for another term, and they did so because they couldn't get reelected, however much Biden may be praised for doing the patriotic thing, which was also the truth.  Harry Truman said he wouldn't run in 1952 because he couldn't get a good enough deal to end the Korean War and because McCarthyite accusations against him had hurt him. Eisenhower had a clean slate. He took the available deal on Korea and bided his time to finish off McCarthy. LBJ declined to run because he could not get a negotiated settlement with North Vietnam and because Eugene McCarthy had nearly beaten LBJ in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary. Biden had to resign the nomination even though the polls with Trump remained close because he was told the polls were bad in the swing states and that the Democratic donors had dried up.

Moreover, there is plenty of time to shift to Kamala as leader. Remember that the entire British election season lasts just six weeks from the time the election is called until it is decided and Kamala will continue Biden's policies both foreign and domestic and can face Trump on the issues of abortion,and Ukraine in a lively manner, asking Trump in  a debate why Trump never criticizes Putin and that Trump is responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. 

Another thought. Harris' vp nominee will have to be a white male so as to balance the ticket. even though the obvious choice would be someone from a battleground state, which means Wisconsin , Michigan or Pennsylvania. Gov. Evers of Wisconsin is just not mentioned as a heavy hitter. That leaves out Gov. Whitmer of Michigan and Sen. Klobuchar of Minnisota, but not Gov. Newsom of California. He is a heavy hitter but might be willing to take the job because, as the expression goes, it puts him one heartbeat away from the Presidency. LBJ made the same decision and not just to get Texas' electoral votes, though Sam Rayburn mentioned it as did JFK. The trouble with Gov. Shapiro of Pennsylvania is that it would make the Harris-Shapiro ticket too Jewish. Under Kamala, the spouse of the President would be Jewish. Harris's step-daughters refer to her as "mamala". That nearly happened once before because the wife of Michael Dukakis was Jewish and people asked her if she would put up the White House Christmas tree and she said she would. Harris's step-daughters refer to her as "mamala". So no Shapiro as vp. Sen. Mark Kelley of Arizona seems a good choice.

The Assassination Attempt

Political events are moving fast.

My literary sense rather than my sociological one told me that something important would break that was important in the news over the summer because things always do  happen. And so there were two events so far: the Biden debacle on the debate stage and the attempted assassination of Trump just a few days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Joe Biden, as usual terse and incisive, said no one could tell what the effects of the assassination attempt would be on the November election. Doubtless, I add, new events are bound to intervene, such as a victory over Hamas by Israel, or the long awaited ceasefire, or a bad turn in the domestic economy, which is unlikely in that the economy has been perking along quite well and only diehard Trumpists think otherwise. But the latest news is that Biden has covid and is reconsidering abandoning the nomination for a second term and so the assassination attempt may be overshadowed by subsequent events and not have much impact on the election in November, so far away as it is.

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Biden Bounces Back

But his nomination isn’t secure.

American voters will have to engage in a bit of discernment in choosing which nominee to decide to be President in November. In the past, they could vote on relative charm or whether the economy was doing well, knowing that whomever was elected would have been a responsible President and so not a crucial choice. But not this time.

If Biden had flubbed yesterday during his post NATO Summit Meeting press conference the way he had in his debate with Trump and his interview with George Steponopolis, then Nancy Pelosi and some other senior Democrats could have had the distasteful duty of  going to the White House and telling Biden that he could no longer do the job and give way to either Kamala Harris or a short list of articulate, vigorous and well experienced Governors for the Chicago delegates to choose as standard bearer. But that is not what happened. Biden was strong in offering a comprehensive view of foreign policy. He explained the reason for and accomplishment of a strong NATO to fend off the America Firsters who had not infiltrated into the Republican Party since Pearl Harbor, pointing out that internationalism included both Ronald Rdeagan and himself. He turned a question of whether he was able to negotiate with foreign leaders into describing that he had restored talks with China and that at the moment there was nothing to talk about with Putin who is not willing to budge on his war aims against Ukraine despite the very high casualties to Russia and a loss of land in Ukraine controlled by Russia. Biden also mentioned that he had strengthened the Pacific Rim allies and so was controlling China and  economically punishing Chinese cooperation with Russia.Biden also said that managing Israel was difficult because it had the most conservative  government it had, his own involvement going back to the time of Golda Meir. Biden also managed to point out that at home  employment was up and inflation down and illegal immigration seriously lessened because of his own executive orders. Quite a good performance.

But here is where the discernment comes in. Biden’s voice is weak. He sometimes has to wait a few seconds to recover a word he is looking for, something familiar to myself during advanced age. He sometimes garbles his words or stutters. He is clearly an old man and so need to notice that his knowledge of the facts and ideas remain clear and decisive. He knows what he thinks, has thought through the issues, rather than offering canned statements. Don’t worry about  teleprompters that are used by both candidates. He is an active and acute observer of what is going on and people should notice that if they put aside his  elderly mannerisms. 

The media will over the next four months have a lot of influence in helping the voters to discern what is the differences between reality and appearance, not something required in past elections where voters could choose differences between policy, character or party affiliation. Will the media dwell on Biden’s verbal lapses or attend to the fact that he knows what he is talking about? That could make the difference. An even greater challenge to the media is how to handle Trump, whose test begins soon enough this coming Monday at the Republican Convention in Milwaukee. Commentators have already taken the role of fact checking Trump but will they do it aggressively enough tyo show he lies all the time about anything and that what he says are assertions rather than evidence or arguments, which seems a mental failure of his that goes very far back and so is not the result of aging.

The most important questions to face Trump or his spokespeople starting now is why he has never provided evidence of a rigged election, or why he hid and lied about secret documents and what right he had to ask Georgia to give him the votes needed for him to win the vote in the stage. He and they can claim Trump can’t say because these matters are in the courts, but that doesn’t wash. He is offering himself to be President of the United States not just in jeopardy of being a jailbird.  He can be asked to meet a higher standard, that of public opinion. Ask on the Sunday programs why there are no explanations of these various issues and why is he delaying the process for possibly exonerating himself? The ball is in his court and evading the issues makes him seem guilty, which is reason enough not to vote for him, as well as for his general demeanor of meanness and his plans to overthrow democracy. Commentators may be willing to discuss the 2025 Project but find it distasteful to deal with Trump’s personal character, every president, like Richard Nixon, given a clean shave for his past character once assuming President because it is so distasteful to deal with negative personal qualities. Bjut why shouldn’t they ask? Newspapermen looked into Gary Hart’s personal life and undid  him  as a candidate. Why not ask why revenge isn’t always a bad thing or that diminishing an opponent’s stature by remarking on his small hands or his wife’s appearance diminishes himself rather than the people he tries to belittle. Media people will have to wade into personalities when they try to avoid thinking verbal flubs are evidence but smearing is beneath their dignity when it is the most obvious evidence before them.

We will see next week how the media handle Trump. That could be decisive.

What Democrats Should Do

Biden should pass the torch.

The debate last Thursday was not as awful for Biden as it was perceived because the commentators dealt with Biden’s weak delivery rather than the lies offered and the revenge promised by Trump. the commentators did not deal with the essence which was that, rather than the shitshow predicted, the two contestants made clear what they believed: that the other one was the worst president ever and a liar and sending America to ruin. That clarified things and the electorate can decide which one is correct. More cynical people I know just think that they are both a disgrace, while I think that Biden, even though he has a weaker voice, was correct on the issues and his own propriety.  If Biden wins, the worst that can happen if he becomes a figurehead President, just like George W. Bush. Biden would continue his policies and points of view backed by a strong cabinet while a Trump victory is a disaster for the Constitution. People will see that out-- or so I think.

But people have acted differently and many now seen Biden as unequipped to be President because of his infirmities rather than his wise and agile management of government given the divided populace and organs of government while treating Trump’s bluster as not really meaning what he says, which is to create internment camps for millions of people, get revenge against his political enemies by politicizing the Justice Department and making most civil servants into political decisions an d to replace taxes with tariffs, which would lead  to a Great Depression. What can be done to stop Trump? An interview with George Srephanopolis is not likely to restore Biden’s support and important Democratic leaders as well as media leaders think it time to make a turn. Movement is occurring quickly as was the case when England considered  a surrender to Hitler at the time of Duunkirk and I do not exaggerate the menace a second term for Trump would be to the American Constitution.

I suggest the following plan. The leading Democrats would orchestrate a pageant at the Chicago Convention next month when, Biden having announced he will not run, three or four likely contenders, such as Harris, Klobuchar, Newsome and Whitmer, will present speeches saying that Biden has gone far but like Moses will not enter the promised land but will continue his policies in his name and then  the delegates will jostle with one another about which one will be the standard bearer. (I eliminate Buttigig because Trump will make gayness the issue, but then again, I didn’t think Obama would get elected in 2008 because he was Black. So I could be wrong and Mayor Pete has proven himself an excellent cabinet secretary, having mastered the intricacies of transportation, which are considerable.) Biden might agree with this plan to have an exit with glory, deified while still alive. When Hubert Humphrey, having been defeated by Nixon, returned to the Senate and soon found out to have terminal cancer, he received many tributes from his colleagues about his accomplishments. Rather than thinking this morbid, Humphrey said he loved it. Politicians are like opera singers. They love applause.

There would also be advantages to the nation. Remember that Lyndon Johnson got large majorities in Congress in the 1964 election because of the assassination of John F. Kennedy the previous year. That allowed Johnson to pass major civil rights legislation. A similar tribute to Biden as the person worn down from his long political endeavors might give the Democrats enough election wins that they could pass civil rights and voting rights bills as well as legislation on the border, the electorate a bit guilty at  heaving Biden out now that he was ousted. Such is the nature of popular political feeling. At least we will be rid of Trump and can hope that the Republicans can return themselves into being a conservative rather than  Populist party. That may be wishing too much, but the future can be formed through good wishes rather than dire forebodings.

Evidence in Politics

Are American politics cynical or honorable?

Wittgenstein says that logic can take care of itself. I take that to mean that you can’t explain why logic is logical, just elaborate that you can’t both assert a statement and its opposite even if people as a matter of course do so all the time as when you say Trump is a mean petulant man and is also your standard bearer. I also take Wittgenstein to mean that logic does not vary from place to place or time to time. There is no Jewish or Chinese logic. There is just logic. So logic is a metaphysical matter or, if you prefer, a transcendental matter, a part of the structure of the universe, and even more so, in that other galaxies may have different biologies but no galaxy would alter logic. Logic has a stature that is unassailable. That is very different from rhetoric, which is about persuasion rather than truth and which Plato castigated as a knack rather than necessarily aligned with truth. But consulting political discourse allows us to appreciate how indeed persuasions can change, and that is particularly important in the present day.

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The Stormy Daniels Case

Slogans matter more than literature, trials and history.

Distancing oneself from the enormity of Trump having been President and possibly a future President, given his disregard of the U. S. Constitution and his mean spirited character, no prior President having or being so indifferent to law and decency, people like me can do that distancing by turning the current hush money trial into a kind of musical without songs, akin to “Sweeney Todd” or “Guys and Dolls” or “The Beggar’s Opera”, filled as they are with flamboyant characters and dastardly deeds to give a little bite to those middle class audiences out for a thrill and so see “”La Traviata” as a young man who sowed his wild oats before being restored to respectability. So is the case in the Trump trial: a soupcon of tawdriness to make you feel superior to politicians independent of whether you will vote for the sleazebag in chief. Here is Stormy Daniels who turns out to be articulate and feisty, no victim, standing up to Trump’s lawyer, and being won over as a figure of women's liberation rather than why she had to go through with sex with Trump rather than leaving the hotel room. There are the Trump employees still loyal to him but showing in detail just how well organized was the Trump operation in supervising disbursements, he signed the checks, and so the hush money was not inadvertent. There is Michael Cohen, Trump’s Iago or maybe Brutus, turning on Trump perhaps because Cohen got no position in the Trump Administration or because he got cornered by the Feds, or had a profound change of heart, freeing himself of the thralls of being in the Trump ambit and deciding to act in his own interests. There could be an opera called “Cohen'' just as there is no opera called “Iago'', though there should be. Most of all in this cast of sleazy characters, Judge Marcen the exception, but not excusing Susan Nechles, the previously well regarded attorney now representing Trump, who tried to embarrass Daniels, but with no success, and perhaps instructed by Trump to engage in a hatchet job that was damaging to Trump.

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Common Sense

“Common sense” means practicality.

What is “common sense"? The term is often associated with its provenance. Common sense is what anyone can have while people schooled with books and lectures can lack common sense and rely instead on these artificial ways  of learning to learn the things needed to manage life and things while, paradoxically, common sense may also be a rare commodity in that most people may not have insight about people and processes, about appreciating  the motives of people or how to adjust the tv set, while just about everyone can get a rudimentary formal education and remain clueless about how the world works. Common sense emerges as a major concept of epistemology in that assessing it means evaluating a claim that is a way to go on the road to truth. Indeed, John Dewey based his theory of knowledge on common sense. He thought that the practical activity of woodworking or managing farm machinery honed one’s mental abilities so as to appreciate more abstract matters. Practical knowledge led people to be objective and creative in  finding solutions. I want to explore the idea of common sense more fully.

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"Civil War " or Civil War

The dread of the abyss.

How does a popular art engage an audience without offending  their political points of view and so becoming divisive and so hurting the box office? High art doesn’t care. Mark Twain and George Eliot just said what was on their minds, Twain anti-slavery and Eliot in favor of parliamentary reform-- but then again “The West Wing'' clearly showed its Liberal biases. One way popular art can neutralize itself is to deal with politics by developing the characters of the public figures. That happens in movies like “Primary Colors'', which is about a fictionalized Clinton, a very nuanced George W. Bush in “W.”, and in “Hyde Park on the Hudson'', where emphasis is given to FDR’s sexual liaisons though getting in that FDR was scheming to prepare for FDR to get American support in an expected war between Enghland and Germany.  Another alternative for popular art is to abstract out the opposing set of beliefs so as t6o divorce the movie context from actual events and controversies that viewers might find disputatious. Spencer Tracy in “Keeper of the Flame” presented as an imaginary group what was meant to convey the America Firsters or maybe a Lindberg like figure who gave into the view whereby a leader becomes autocratic and fascistic a few years before in the 1942 movie had opposed involvement in the European war between Britain and Germany. And “A Face in the Crowd” generalized populism when what it really had as its object McCarthyism, which was ginning up hatred for only selfish desires for power. 

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Columbia Protests

Genocide is different.

When the police came to clear the students from the Columbia campus back in 1968, it was because students had occupied a number of buildings, including the President’s office and a few classroom buildings, and so thwarted the ability of a university to do business. The cause of the protest, which was the Vietnam War, was not the reason to send in the police. This month, pro-Palestinian students encamped on the lawn in front of Butler Library, and the police cleared them from the campus. The same action would not have been taken if the squatters were encamped to protest world hunger. Ralph Abernathy had gotten all the permits on the WashingtonMall so as to create a March on Poverty but that encampment, reminiscent  of Hoovervilles, just fizzled, not having the fizzle, I think, that MLK. Jr. did have and so was sorely missed. So what happened? We are undergoing a profound difference in the idea of free speech, where the principles and facts, the content of what is said, is becoming the criteria to use about whether free speech is accessible rather than thinking, in line with John Stuart Mill, that government is just a referee which allows the contestants to argue a contention out by themselves, let the better idea win.

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Conclusive Argument

Adages are more convincing than arguments, but not conclusive.

What is the point of staging an argument? Piers Morgan has tried to moderate a number of debates between Pro-Hamas and Pro-Israeli speakers. No one expects the other to become convinced of the views of the opposing debaters. What is to be gleaned is that one or the other side will have revealed itself as hypocritical or uninformed, at least to  the satisfaction of Morgan or the other side and maybe to some in the audience, but strictly speaking each side can defend their own point of view to their own satisfaction even if the other side thinks the opposition is lame or deceptive. So a Pro-Hamas debater cannot admit to criticizing whatever Hamas says because the basis of the cause is very long lasting, as old as the Nakba, while the advocate of Israel disputes the casualty figures even though the amount is beside the point, just too much, though Natasha Housdorff argues that casually figures for civilians to military casualties are far less than what has happened in Iraq or elsewhere and so the Israelis are relatively humane, though I haven’t heard or read such figures in other media sources. So arguments are of limited usefulness. They do not result in a conclusive argument so as to shift sides though some of the points may rankle.

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A Solar Eclipse

An eclipse is less than meets the eye.

There was a solar eclipse a few days ago that covered a band of geography from Dallas to Burlington. People congregated to watch it, sure to wear their protective lenses so as not to harm their eyes. Such an eclipse would not happen again for a quarter century and so was a major event, but it just meant no eclipse would happen till then over the United States. There would be a band over the North Atlantic including over Iceland next year. Book your cruises for that. Why such a big ado because of a solar eclipse?

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Trump's Charisma

Giotto, The Road to Calvary, c.1305

Max Weber defined “charisma” as a personal quality but I prefer to regard it as the attribute of an office rather than as a personal quality because of the derivation of the term “charisma” as referring to people being invested with an aura like power by higher authority as happens when there is a laying down of hands in a church congregation or empowered by regulations in Catholic Church so that one is made a priest or a bishop. Hebrew rabbis earned their charisma by the number of their followers. In a modern secular world, political figures get their charisma through election into office, Donald Trump thinking that a President has the right to kill his political opponents, so universal is the power of the charisma of that office. That is very different from the popular version of charisma where the term refers to personal charm and attractiveness, which applies to movie stars and pop singers and may indeed be part of what leads some people, such as Ronald Reagan, to be elevated to the Presidency.

More formally put and more up to date is to define charisma as a role in that it has a body of attributes that make it recognizable as having a distinctive set of activities, such as being a bus driver or a physician or a father who is called upon to do the things that are part of those roles or to be found lacking in that role, so it can be said some people are bad parents or inept at repairing a computer glitch even if they pretend to be otherwise.  Roland Wulbert has suggested to me that a person  is charismatic if they are never contrite, just as Jesus was never contrite and Donald Trump was criticized for not being contrite even though not being so was at the heart of his being and so violated normal behavior. But he was being what he was, which was charismatic, and there are oyster attributes to be added as the qualities of charisma, including incisiveness that sees farther than ordinary people do, or confidence despite what ordinary people may think, or as Trump points out, being a stable genius, even if he is not eloquent, as Hitler was, and so may mangle or exaggerate or even lie, the truth underlying his words an expression of his charisma. 

Here are some other attributes of the role of the charismatic. Such a person has authority to declare meanings as legitimate, as when supreme court justices decide whether separate but equal is fair at the turn into the Twentieth Century and is a contradiction half a century later. Charismatics endure slander against them, as is the case with Jesus and Martin Luther King, Jr. and Trump. Charismatics draw their followers to themselves, which is the case with Luther and Lenin and Trump. Why do their followers do so? That seems the most central power and so is taken to be a magic like enchantment of the charismatic person by the followers, as if they were indeed pop stars. But the basis of charismatic following can be tawdry and unholy. Gandhi pedaled a retrogressive economic policy but adopted a garb  and a demeanor and attracted publicity that made contributions to Indian independence. Trump was an inherited real estate mogul who bankrupted his own casinos  but had an afterlife as a celebrity selling the idea of being a mogul on television who dreamed of being trich and respected, which was every Ralph Kramden’s dream, and that led him into a political venture he expected to lose and wound up the possession of a gigantic following. Barnum would be proud. Nothing very impressive is needed to get one’s credentials as a charismatic person. That is why Weber thought charisma introduced something new into the social mix but was unreliable because it was untethered. FDR had charm and he did win over the American people, but Al Smith thought there wasn’t much to be said for a cripple who would die soon, and instead persevered for thirteen years as President.

So if personal charm is not the key to being charismatic, unlike movie stars who have to fill the screens with their magnetism,.what is it that people make of Trump that gives him his hold on them? People interviewed about Trump, including both ordinary voters and people like Lindsay Graham, who seems to just admit accepting to the fact that Trump has his loyal supporters and that is reason enough to make his peace with him, is that he expresses himself crudely towards women, or with exaggeration, though not quite willing to say he lies, because Trump apparently evokes a deeper sense of what is wrong with American politics. Yes, Trump is a braggart and a loudmouth and always mean and angry but maybe people feel liberated by having someone voice feelings and ideas that they themselves would be ashamed to voice. Trump is naughty and that makes respectable people feel glad about it even if they say tsk tsk to his more outrageous claims or secretly sympathize with his racist thoughts to, for example, reinstate an Arab ban on immigration, only letting Europeans in. Trump expresses their darkest angels. That doesn’t mean he is not likable. It is that supporters either feign likeability, as with Graham (who early on despised him) or have transmuted unlikeability into its opposite, seeing the virtue of being at odds with everything in  government they find objectionable as one Trump supporter in 2016 who was against government intervention but demanded saving her Social Security, as if that weren't a government program.

 It is a good question whether Trump found an audience looking for him or whether his support was generated out of the shambles of the 2016 Republican primary battle, where no opponent seemed  to be able to deal with his demeaning jokes about his contenders. They still thought candidates should maintain some dignity and he didn’t or treated their opponents with it.

Weber thought that charismatics brought innovation into social life because that was the only alternative to custom and law as forms of social control, custom being the time immemorial way to do things, and law and bureaucracy, by which Weber meant the same thing, as having begun to prosper in the late Medieval period with the development of joint stock companies. But innovation is only a universal claim by charismatics that they are doing so. In fact, charismatics use innovation to establish retrogression. Jesus announced a new dispensation of being kind to people when, in fact, the Prophets had said the same while introducing the retrograde idea of miracles and pagan mythology. Hitler announced the innovations of technology, such as planes and cars and weaponry, but was reviving an older spirit of family values and ethnic warfare. Stalin was ushering in a new age of economic organization when he was establishing himself as the most bloodthirsty of the Czars. In general, it is incorrect to agree with “Ideology and Utopia” and think the cutting division is between past and future mindedness.

Trump is also a charismatic who pretends progress but engages in retrogression. He says he will be revolutionary by dismantling “the deep state”, suspend parts of the Constitution and creating detention centers for hundreds of thousand illegal aliens, but what he actually proposes is an old fashioned border wall, the self same restoration of Fifties family values, and punitive forms of law and order, a platform adopted from traditional Republicans so as to get their support when, pre-political, he had been open on social issues, as might be expected of most New Yorkers. Trump has joined a Know Nothing nativist party, though he may not mean he knows only Americanism but that he really doesn’t know very much about anything.

Weber misunderstood the innovativeness and potency of custom and law. Custom does not mean mores of very ancient times but only practices that seem to have ever been and forever to be even if they last only for a brief period of time. So the double standard whereby sexual chastity  was expected for only women existed for hundreds and hundreds of years or maybe for thousands but was suspended a genera tion or two back and now it seems natural for women to have sexual relations as they please. That is the new natural and an amnesia sts upon what was the natural previously. Similarly, law also seems to suspend time in that what a law does is make edicts stated in the past binding in the future. But laws can be modified. The Founding Fathers developed the Constitution as an original form of government as that was expressed in a set of intersecting fundamental laws that emphasized the balance of power and Supreme Court rulings are able to create rights and abolish them, as when the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Roe v. Wade and abolished the right of abortion fifty years later. Law is flexible and those who make it and administer it are also flexible, rather than an iron rule of delegated authority responsible only to an original charismatic. Weber was being too Lutheran in thinking that the sole freedom of a person or a society was to submit, to engage in free will, to be obedient to God or some other charismatic, and that applies to custom as well, whereby people adopt and dispense with hula hoops, the moon walk, Taylor Swift and hiding under student desks so as to train for an atomic invasion.

Another cardinal characteristic of a charismatic person is not to take their words too seriously. The allegiance of the follower to the charismatic is formed by the strength of the personality of the charismatic, the follower trying to gauge the subtleties of the emotions conveyed even if not clear on the character underlying the personality. The charismatic remains an enigma, obscured from others even as followers try to grasp his meanings or being. Jesus remains enigmatic, his personality obscure, seen mostly from the outside, and his sayings enigmatic, deliberately confounding his listeners, though those who wrote down and edited his sayings were developed well enough to constitute a literature, in that people have pondered their meanings for thousands of years. Moses was charismatic even though and maybe because he stuttered and had a temper, and smote a person, as did Billy Budd. Washington was not charismatic, even though he was tall and dignified, because he stated what he said clearly and neither was Lincoln charismatic in that he was eloquent, even though both figures are retrospectively regarded as central iconic figures. Hitler’s strong suit was his emotional fervor, not the strength of his reasoning. He was fascinating rather than taken as wise.

Jesus is understood as charismatic and has been recognized as such for a very long time, whatever He was in life. Giotto painting “Jesus at Calvary”, from 1305, makes that clear by having his face turned to the viewer while the other figures are part of the mise en scene. Jesus is without expression, an icon of a figure, rather than realistic and so Giotto is bringing a Medieval representation of Jesus into Giotgto’s realistic setting. Jesus is different from other people and also silent  and expressionless while other people bustle about, whatever His other concerns might be, about heaven or His Father or the plight of mankind, speculations where Jesus’ consciousness is never plumbed. His charisma is for the ages rather than the property of the historical Jesus.

Donald Trump should therefore not be expected to offer wisdom but rather his fierce meanness, as I have suggested, which gives him his allure, and it is his followers to explain that as an attractive feature, just as why the early followers of Jesus are to find attractive an itinerant preacher who was crucified, whatever was the evolving church structure that sustained him. Maybe Trump’s hold on people will dissipate if he is convicted of multiple felonies, but maybe, then again, not. Alive or dead, he may remain appealing to a figure who garners resentments both those real and imagined. Mankind is not likely to be rid of resentment.

The Primary System

Trump keeps winning but stioll might lose.

  1. A point I did not notice in the columnists and cablecasters, who said Nikki Haley was soundly defeated in the New Hampshire Primary by Trump, who won by eleven points or so, was that Halley had doubled her percentage of participants by winning over 40% of the vote in New Hampshire white getting less than 20% of the caucus participants in Iowa. That meant that most of the Desantis supporters, who dropped out of the presidential race just a few days before the New Hampshire primary, had switched to Haley rather than Trump. It seems that the maximum support for Trump in the Republican party is around fifty percent and that the rest of the Republicans are not happy about Trump and likely in a general election not  to vote or maybe support Biden. That does not mean Haley can keep climbing and defeat Trump in the primaries, but it might mean that in  the general election, Biden might win by a landslide despite the prevailing view that 2024 might be a very close election. But predictions based on primaries are reading tea leaves, given how much can change between now and then, and it would be better to think about the significance of the primary system itself. 

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The Fani Willis Saga

A moment of time in an ethnic group.

Southern courtroom dramas are very rich and I would expect many more of them than there are. They combine courtly gentlemen who have known one another for years engaged in verbal combat in a courtroom to find out the truth and are accompanied by salacious claims, exotic characters, unruly mobs and a degree of fear and violence, all to tell far more about the those  characters and situations than the people involved mean to leave on. Examples are “To Kill A Mockingbird”, which pulls its punches about how dastardly was a lynch mob in that it would not be deterred, as the story tells it, by the presence of a child, as is also the case in “My Cousin Vinnie” where everyone is nice, but also includes the rancid characters in “Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil”, which describes sex hustlers and a murder and trials in Georgia, and the real life story of the Scottsboro Boys when a New York Jewish lawyer goes South to get justice from Black hobos accused of having raped a white prostitute and has to contend with both Communists and Southertn bigots. Not to mention “In Cold Blood” and “Anatomy of a Murder” who are both placed in the Midwest.

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The Colorado Case

An expected Supreme Court case that will be shameful.

A textualist, whether of the Constitution or any other declarative writing, says that the clear and obvious meaning of a word or passage prevails, while an originalist  claims that what words mean depends on the historical context in which the words were said, Supreme Court originalists saying the Constitution means what it was sent to mean when the passage was enacted. By both standards, the Colorado case which barred Trump from a presidential primary because he was an insurrectionist after having taken an oath to uphold the Constitution, is correct even though that provision in the Constitution might have been unwise in that it can lead to any number of forms of mischief, such as such as having Trump on some ballots but not on others. But the Constitution cannot simply be disregarded, a provision neglected because not in fashion, people defending the Second Amendment as incontrovertible even though its provision had in mind long single shot rifles. Rather, what is likely to happen is that the Supreme Court will go around section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment by hedging what words mean, torturing them into being what they clearly are not. Trump on some ballots but not on others.

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Exclusive Social Movements

Whether you have or only try to parade allies makes a difference.

Sometimes a sociologist finds a simple description of a social situation that cuts through a great g slighted or dismissed or badly handled and so resentful of the ways in which the social world worked. The idea is a repeat of Hegal’s idea that the slave knows better than the lord what are the conditions of the slave’s role, but Merton had generalized that deal of ideological verbiage and makes other argumentation superfluous, so much so that once the social characteristic is identified it seems so obvious that it had always been understood as such. Robert Merton did so in one of his late essays about insiders and outsiders. Addressing the political and ideological turmoil of the Sixties, he distinguished between people who were or identified with people within institutions and those people who were outsiders, each side claiming that they better understood what was going on in social life. Insiders included politicians and academics and corporation executives who knew how the world worked, understood the mechanisms of the social world, while outsiders were people who understood because they were on the receiving end of the results. They included poor people and students and people of color and women, members of each of these groups having suffered from and outraged about their conditions. Merton was like Hegel in pointing out that the slave understood his condition more than did his master, but Merton was transferring the issue to be a general state of knowledge, each with its own claims, rather than a  difference in situations. Which group, the insiders and outsiders, had more legitimate knowledge or was there such an unbridgeable gap that a person could choose the wisdom of one or the other and that was all there was to be said? Professors pontificate and students talk straight and that is just the way things are never mind the intricacies of their alternative explanations. Either you don’t trust people over thirty or you don’t.

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Breaking News

Breaking news doesn’t tell the whole story.

There have been flashpoints in the last seventy-two hours that suggest something important is happening in some of the ongoing issues of our times that make them part of the temper of our times: the legal issues about whether Donald Trump had tried to overthrow a presidential election, an issue only some three years old but destined to remain with us historically; the issue of the Israel Hamas War, which goes back to the creation of Israel since 1948 or if one cares to ever since Jews have been an irritant to others, which goes back for thousands of years; and the issue of American border immigration, which go back to the 1850’s when the Know Nothing Party originated in its rejection of Irish Immigration. The first two flashpoints do not upon analysis as being of significant importance and it is uncertain whether the third will be, which suggests that flashpoints don’t tell what is really going on, They are driven instead by the need for breaking news to fill up media hours rather than the contexts which explain the ongoing issues. Yes, the times are full of issues but the abundance of flashpoints is just the fluff to fill airtime.

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