When, in the first decade of the Eighteenth Century, Peter the Great had ships built for him by Holland, a great maritime sea power, he could take on what was then regarded as the Swedish Empire. Peter succeeded in his Great Northern War and the Swedish Empire was no more. Ever since, for three centuries now, Russia has tried by war to alter the divide between Europe and Russia, sometimes to the East and sometimes to the West. The main division remains the one between Catholic and Protestant countries in Europe, ones that experienced the Renaissance and the Enlightenment and rapid industrialism, to the more scloratic processes that define Russia. The standard division draws a line where the small countries on the eastern edge of the Baltic are within Europe: Lithuania Catholic as was when it was in confederation with the Poles since the Middle Ages; Latvia Protestant, a remnant of that Swedish Empire; and Estonia, because it's people were sent by the Soviets to that territory, atheist then and probably Russian Orthodox today. Poland was the unfortunate buffer between the Russians and Soviets on the East, to which they shared a common boundary, and the equally hated Germans to the West, also with shared boundaries. The southern flank of Eastern Europe was distrusted to the Soviets and the Russians, they always claimed to dominate those territories. Madelyn Albright, who was Clinton’s Secretary of State, was fully aware that the setbacks in Russian power would be temporary after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and tried to arrange measures that would make the division between Russia and Europe more permanent and in accord with the traditional division between the two. Albright had the Baltic states and Romania tied into NATO, which meant that an attack upon one was to be regarded as an attack against all, and so the military integrity of the continent was associated with the economic ties that had been created in the European Union. That would allow whatever storm arose when new more belligerent Russia arose, which happened with Vladimir Putin. Putin always regarded the movement of NATO to its Russian boundary as hostile even if NATO and Biden regard it as a defensive alliance, though the only one there is to defend against is Russia, NATO sending troops to Afghanistan which it regarded as having been an attack against the United States. Defensive versus offensive doesn’t mean much.
What, however, would happen if there was just a divide between Europe and Russia, the various countries under the Iron Curtain recovered to their European national identities, however economically poor was the case in Albania while Roumania shows as it had before, considerable industrial might. That is what happened with Ukraine, which had been part of the Soviet Union but in the dissolution of that state it gave up its nuclear warfare capabilities so as to be neutral between Europe and Russia, and where the Maidan Revolution in 2013 and 2014 where Westernizers ousted a Moscow oriented leadership, and supported in doing so by advisors from Hillary Clinton’s State Department. What was Putin willing to do now, insulted by the effrontery of engaging what had been in the Russian sphere of influence? Where else would Europe and the United States go? Any area with vast Russia could pop up a ‘democracy’ loving banner and get American and European aid and a willingness to back it up with war. Which, strictly speaking, might be the viewpoint of the declaration of independence but where the West does not engage in sponsoring intervention in China or Russia or Arab areas because it is too big a bite to chew. The US can say bad things about China’s treatment of minorities, but that is about all. Sure, Ukraine has a mixed bag. It was independent enough of the Soviet Union to send two armies to fight on the side of the Germans against the Great Patriotic War. Putin says they are crooks and fascists, which seems true enough in that corruption is so rampant in Ukraine that Biden as vice president tried to get a bit of it cleaned up. Its not Canada or Switzerland, just an opportunity to twit Putin, and he is getting annoyed.
The ramping up to war was therefore not pique because Hillary had supported the Ukrainian Revolution. It had to do with long standing interests whereby Russian territory was and might be threatened. But Putin may have miscalculated during the preparations for war. Putin thought America and Europe would engage in unforced errors that would divide the United States and also divide NATO, but that hadn;t happened even though Trump would have fumbled something and that Biden had not been so organized at putting all his ducks in order. No White House leaks. No separation between NATO allies even if the Germans and the Americans see oil a bit differently. Congressional leaders sufficiently well briefed sso that Republicans are silent so far as to how to criticize the President. Biden saying no U, S. troops meant that even a slow bloofying of Americans would put time at Putin’s advantage in that the question would rise whether any American blood was worth losing to defend a country so long allied and within the sphere of influence of the Russians. Sending minor numbers of troops to NATO countries might deter Putin from trying to at least let Estonia become part of its Russian Curtain. Biden has even informed the world of potential Russian false flag activities so as to immunize the West of such threats.
But Putin could still win his war. He would need a quick and not very destructive one whereby Putin could quickly take over Kiev and replace the government with Russia friendly leaders. Them, with a fait accompli. He might negotiate with the Americans to release American sanctions so as to help the world economy because the Russians may or may not have mple dollar reserves but those are not inexhaustible and Biden would make peace because the republicans will blame Biden for having lost the war. How much Ukraine resists is to be seen as well as whether Ukraine creates a government in exile as happened in a number of Nazi occupied nations.
That is the state of play. Stay tuned.